Is the Congo susceptible to falling back into civil war?

From August 1998 to July 2003 eight african nations and 25 armed groups participated in the Second Congo War, a civil war followed by the First Congo War only a year before. By 2008, the war and its aftermath claimed the lives of 5.4 million people, most of whom were civilians, making the Second Congo War the deadliest conflict worldwide since World War II. Although the war officially ended in 2003 with the signing of the Global and All-Inclusive Agreement, the fragility of the state has allowed continued violence and human rights abuses in the east. The driving force for much of the conflict derives from the ongoing ethnic conflict between Hutu- and Tutusi-aligned forces. 

An example of these ongoing conflicts can be seen in the efforts by the eastern Congo rebel leader Nkunda and his army. Clashing with local militias and forces of the Congolese government for several years, the activities of Nkunda in recent weeks have escalated. In just the last several weeks around 250,000 people have been displaced, bringing the total number of homeless people in the region to 1 million. Aside from the displacement of persons, there have been reports of massacres, rape, cholera, and wide-spread hunger. Hoping to protect his fellow Tutsi from the Hutu militias, Nkunda asserted in mid-November that he would march across Congo to the capital, Kinshasa, to overthrow the government of Joseph Kabila, who was elected two years ago.

But how likely is it that the Congo will slip back into civil war? Looking at the "strong correlations" that David Laitin and James Fearon established, the Congo still possesses many of the traits that could possibly lead to civil war, such as a low per capita income ($3,400 a year) and state weakness as a result of the Second Congo War. Although many believe that Nkuna's assertion to march across the capital is unlikely to be fulfilled because of the thick jungle the size of western Europe that he and his army would have to traverse, merely making such a statement spreads despair and adds to the dissatisfaction of the government by the voters. 

Hopefully with the proposed increase of 3,000 UN peacekeepers and the additional troops sent from neighboring countries such as Angola to train Congo's army will prevent further escalation of the fighting and come to the aid of the civilians.